Ep. #28: June 2020 – Da Real Estate Braddahs LIVE​

 

0:06
Stay tuned.

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We just do local guys with so much to say

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today.

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All right, welcome everybody I put in the slide here because we want to get to a free giveaway. The Easter egg is a net worth tracker sheet that I created this past week. It has a cool tool where you can put in your how much money you have, what’s your anticipated interest rate, and how much money you’re anticipated to save. And you can kind of track you know, maybe if you’re growing your money at 5% 10% 15% how it grows over the years. You can download that at simple passive cash flow calm slash legacy. Well, let’s get into it. This is Episode 28 June 20. 20 monthly market update. What are we going to talk about here today? Some of the highlights?

1:05
Yeah, starting off with some positivity, you know, with all this negative stuff, I thought we’re over the COVID hump for some areas of the states, Hawaii being one of them, but then we have the Floyd issue and the riots going on. So I want to start off with some positivity. I got some early May stats even though HPR didn’t come with with their official numbers. So I have found a different way to pull those. So we’ll talk about that zoom in the news again and talking about the new normal. Some of the things I wanted to talk about on and I can’t see the screen though right now is is is it I know you can apparently but I can’t see the screen. Is it? Am I in the wrong view? for everybody’s patience? Yeah, my name is Dean Witter. I’m a retired CPA full time realtor now and investor lien and I’ve been doing this for what is 20 episodes now. Lane so Brent coming to you, again as a full time military With a lot of information on Hawaii real estate as well as trends going on on the mainland, so, as I mentioned earlier, you know, I wanted to start off with some positivity with all this negativity going on in the news. I wanted to come up with them. I’m not too sure if you folks are familiar with john Kaczynski is some good news or sGn. It’s a YouTube channel that he’s come up with eight episodes so far, and everything on it is very positive things going in the world. And so far, episodes, but what I most recently heard, maybe not good news, but he’s actually sold this some good news brands over to CBS, I think because he can’t maintain it. For those of you who know who john Krasinski is he was Jim on the office and also an Amazon Prime he’s the jack Ryan so apparently that’s starting up filming again. So he can’t do that but I watched the the eight episodes Have some good news. And it was basically started because of the corona virus and he was filming it from home and I believe it’s self produced. But watching some of the episodes, it’s really great. And I suggest you need some positivity in your life tune into some good news on YouTube. Also a few websites that I found looking for more positivity on the web, since all of us are on the web these days. Good News network.org. And also www positive news are also two sites that you can go to to fill yourself with some some good stuff.

3:37
What is one way that you’ve been more positive?

3:40
Great question. So there’s your picture there, Lane. I think

3:45
you didn’t go too far to get that one, huh?

3:50
Well, there there was a word it said gratitude above it. And so and I’ve talked about it. Oh, there you go. We have a transition, but I’ve been trying to I wake up every morning and come with with the mindset of gratitude. So I wake up in the morning and tell myself something that I’m grateful for. And so I’m part time homeschooling my children. And I actually did that. Two days ago, right after breakfast, I asked the children, my kids, eight and six year olds, you know, to let you know, two things that they’re grateful for. And I’m trying to bring that mindset of gratitude and pass it on to them. So what I put your picture there early in is because I don’t think I’ve ever said this to you sounds really corny, but I risk it and say, I’m grateful for you. And oh, we don’t talk so much these days. But you know, when I do, and when I am able to get you on the phone or on a zoom meetup. I really am grateful for the chats that we have, you know, we both don’t think alike and that’s great because you know, you tell you should be thinking out of the box, right? And a lot of times, my mind Is that box. So when I talk to someone who doesn’t think like me, like you, who is a, you know, good thinker. Also, you put these ideas in my mind that are outside of my normal way of thinking. So that’s a good way for me to think out of the proverbial box, if you will. So, but yeah, to your question, mainly, I am trying to come up with a lot of gratitude these days, especially in the current date, the time Yeah, so everybody should

5:29
think I don’t come from a family where yet we express our emotions. So yeah, grateful for you, too. Thank you. Thank you. Well, I got another idea outside the box. Okay. So tell your kids write down what they’re thankful for. Okay, on a little piece of paper, okay, fortune cookie, and then throw it all into a bowl. And then once in a while, like fish out of that bowl, one thing and then they got to go like, I don’t know, four hours or a day or two without it.

5:56
Oh, interesting. That’s a good one. I like that. I don’t take it for granted.

6:00
Yeah, they might think that’s a horrible game.

6:03
You got to make sure they don’t know what happens during the game before they write everything down. If not, they might use it and put stuff that up. Yeah,

6:10
but lame stuff. Yeah.

6:14
Okay, so jumping into the statistics for me 2020. So keep in mind on the border routers, statistics for me aren’t going to come out for another two days. So I figured out another way to pull it. This is via info sparks. And so these numbers may differ from what you hear in the next two days that comes out from HBr. But they’ll probably be pretty close and at least the arrows for the most part, I think will the trends in overall will be same, if not very similar. Starting off with single family we see actually a jump up of 4%. In median single family prices at 797,000. We see a reduction in close sales of 23% and 244 for median days on market. We see a 40% 41% decrease down to 13 days I think this number will differ from what we get from HBr, I think, by maybe fire attendees, and then new listings for single family, we see a big drop of 38% at 348 listings coming up in May. So for condo and townhouses, we see a slight drop of 4% at 299,500. You see a big decrease in close sales, no surprise at 2056 median days on market at 23, which is a 15% reduction from the point again that it’s listed to the point that it goes into escrow. And then for new listings. We also see a decrease of 29% at 526. new listings for condos. So interesting stuff. I mean, we still seeing the median single family price go up slightly safe to say it’s kind of what we expected in terms of close sales going down. So much for both single family and condos. But you’re on quite the X Factor is, is when we’re looking at these new listings, because those are also on going down. That’s going to be interesting. And you know, where everyone’s talking about the current state and what’s going to happen. And you know, in the short term, the majority is seeing that, you know, the real estate markets go to going to soften a little bit in the short term. And the question is, you know, how much So next slide is going to be talking about how we will maintain potentially maintain our our prices or stabilize the softness in the next short term. So we’ll have single family month supply on inventory, that’s still going down for single family look, and for the month of May, it’s 2.6 months. So I don’t know if you remember we talked about this in the past. The general rule of thumb is you know, around six months of inventory is what we consider an equilibrium. Anything below would be a seller’s market, anything above would be a buyers market. So because Even though close sales are going down, so are the new inventory coming on market. So buyers are getting skittish, but so are the sellers that they’re able to hold off before they’re putting things on market. So we see that for single family. And the next slide we see for condos and townhomes, it’s a little bit different we see on Oahu annually, the condo, month supply is actually going up and it’s getting closer to if you want to use that six, six months as equilibrium but 4.7 months is what showing up for our info sparks again, keep in mind, it’s gonna be slightly different than 100 Board of realtors is gonna report but it’ll be pretty close. And so what’s driving these, these months supply going down? Or what’s the driver and part of it again, is this new listings. So if you look at single family homes new listings in May at 248 and you look at that that’s what’s driving the months of inventory staying low. And that also might be the reason why Prices are slightly Shut up. Yeah. So hopefully my point is that once of inventory is something I’m going to watch, as well as new listings to see, you know, how much impact COVID is going to have on the local real estate market. Yeah. And so same thing for condos yet we see a slight uptick 526 for me, and the interesting thing is, this is not unique to Oahu, I’ve been hearing this across the mainland in terms of residential against, again, real estate is local, so everywhere will be different, but I’ve heard that in from various people, residential as well as commercial where, you know, inventory is staying relatively low, and that’s kind of what’s being able to hold up the prices. So and I’m not trying to give a false positive or anything but I’m just kind of giving you that insight in terms of that so good and bad. Some notes that I just want to wrote down is that you know, there’s still there are still people right now who are ready, willing and able to buy and sell real estate, I’ll be there, you know, people that are putting things on hold or are forced to based on, you know, their job situation or whatnot. One thing that is also helping us is interest rates are all time lows, and it’s actually forecasted to be potentially get even lower, I think most recent quarter hurt earlier this week was 3.25 for the 30 year conventional, and what people are saying is that, you know, based on the Fed rates being what they are, we should actually be seeing something like in the high twos. And I think we talked about it last time, in terms of why is it that it seems like it should be lower, but a lot of is driven by the retail side because of the demand for either reifies and or purchases. So another thing is we’re thinking this stimulus, the federal stimulus cares act, all of the federal funds come from is helping right now and if you look at the stock market it’s kind of it’s a trip I mean we I think the low bottom out on March 23. And now since then if you see on this graph that March strength turns at that bottom and it’s ever since then it’s kind of been on a steady uptick which is kind of a mystery to me I’m I’m waiting for that next correction. I don’t know about you lane, but it’s throwing me off and it’s what is a good thing. I mean, we see the ups and downs. So if you’re a day trader, I mean, it’s, it’s great for you guys. I just don’t know how to play that game right now. That’s some of my, my perspective. And I wanted to bring it back down and I don’t want to be or come off as a an optimist all the time. So I actually found an article on the next day talking from you hero, which is Economic Research Organization of the University of voice so that’s the economic think tank for you Ah, and in just recently may 28, they came out with a report for the titled battered by COVID-19 oil begins to reopen. So they in overall there’s there’s a whole bunch of stats statistics that come out on it. And if you want a copy, ping me at dino@gmail.com, I can send it to you. But in a nutshell, they come up with a pessimistic, pessimistic scenario and optimistic scenario. So basically, on the pessimistic side, they’re saying, for 2020, really income is going to decline by more than 6%. Non farm payrolls will be down 20%. And job columns will still be at 50,000. Below the pre create below its crease pre crisis levels in 2022. And unemployment will remain at 9%. And then, yeah, that sounds not so good. But the optimistic side doesn’t sound it sounds better, but not much from the standpoint of, you know, they’re saying businesses catering to the local market would recover by 80 to 85%. From the recent decline, two thirds of job losses will be covered in the next year. And hopefully, visitor numbers will would fall short of 2019 levels for the next five years. So those are sound much, very good either, but it doesn’t really translate to real estate. But what I wanted to point out is, you know, there there’s, there’s two sides of every coin and this is the kind of the not so good story. And you know, like I said, You hero is a is a great entity that puts out non bias information. So, I like to pay attention to what they have to say, what people aren’t working. I don’t care of them. Yeah, that’s I mean, you drive to Waikiki these days and that, that is kind of scary. What one good thing though I was I was driving home today had a showing out in Hawaii Kai and it was at 430. I was coming through post city and I ran into some traffic and I was a first I was a con man, we trafficker it then it dawned on me as a you know what? I’m fortunate to be sitting in traffic, it sounds weird. But I told myself I’m fortunate to be sitting in traffic because that means hopefully these people are coming from work and all these people are working. So

15:10
I wish upon everyone to be stuck in traffic during rush hour.

15:15
Again, positive spin on something negative, right, so we need today. So, which takes me to the next point. We talked about Doom a bunch of times in the last few episodes. So needless to say, we need to talk about again. And so now another negative thing, but basically beware of scams via email. So apparently, there’s emails going out for you to upgrade your zoom software. So though, an email commodity, I click and run this file, so that you can get the latest zoom app update and it’s actually a remote access Trojan that’s going to take over, not take over your computer, but it’s gonna record all of your keystrokes so that you can get your password Whereas for later so please be aware of the this scam, that zoom is not zoom, but the scammers are coming up to try to fool you folks. Yeah, so it’s a little bit different than the the scams we were talking about in the past in terms of needing to set up your controls for being actually in the zoom app.

16:20
And this is incognito mode and you’ll be alright.

16:24
You know,

16:26
I don’t know how much you’ve been thinking about this lane, but I was you know, talking to others about what’s going to be this new normal what you know, what is that going to look like and and some some of the ads newspaper articles I’ve seen one of them talking about Japan opening up soon, you know, they’re they’re out of crisis mode, even though they’ve had some relapses, but they’re talking about opening up the amusement parks soon, Tokyo Disney, they have universal and Osaka so but they’re talking about the new safety measures that they have to have in place. So one of them that’s being discussed is potentially not allowing People’s to scream as they’re going down the roller coaster because I guess, you know, that could potentially pass the virus on today’s the people behind yours. Stuff like that

17:09
go backwards to Yeah,

17:11
right. Oh yeah, that’s true. So it can go either way. So they’re talking about that, you know, katoki is a big thing in Japan. So they’re saying that some of the big cut, okay hotspots were actually some, some points where they found there was a reoccurrence of COVID. So now they’re getting new controls over that, right. And now, we step back, take a look at the corporate world, you know, more employees, you know, as they’re slowly being allowed to come back to work, some of them are getting the option to work from home full time or part time. And so, both for the corporations and for their employees, you know, that’s gonna change things in terms of, you know, will the companies need as much office space for when you know, maybe they can reduce their overhead that way and On the flip side, homeowners or renters, you know, looking to, for a new place to rent or buy, you might have different considerations because now you need, you may need a home office. Yeah. So I know one of my good friends, she’s working from home married with a one child and they live in a condo. And so she has a setup where there’s a small table, you know, the ones from Don Quixote, and so she’s sitting on the carpet on the ground with her, her monitor there, but not too comfortable. Yeah, so it’s not too conducive to work. So people in that situation next time looking for a place. Again, if renters or owners might be needing an extra Nook or an extra room, maybe even two for their home office, if that option is going to be allowed to them. Some things to think about. I have this picture in the middle here. Remember, I told you, my son is part of the Chinese lion dance team here locally. And so we recently had our head instructor or our instructors son graduated, so from high school so you know, no big graduation party. But we had a big convoy and we also performed the lion dance on a flatbed truck and kind of just drove by gave the blessing and and moved on. I don’t know about you lane. If you’ve attended any of these graduation drive bys yet,

19:15
you have to drive the car. I’m not a big fan. Oh,

19:19
yeah. So I mean,

19:21
all these potential changes, you know, and what I’m missing is, you know, the Aloha hugs and kisses and the handshakes with the chips bump with with your boys. I mean, that’s kind of seems like it’s gonna be out the door for the near foreseeable future. And, you know, here in Hawaii, that’s kind of like,

19:38
the norm. It was the norm, I should say. So let’s see how that’s gonna change. Right?

19:43
Yeah, it could just be an endemic and it’s just part of life, right? Yeah,

19:46
I mean, we’d be walking around in these these bubbles. Plastic bubbles, maybe in bumping into each other. You know, we see such other industries. Who knows. should be interesting, though. Yeah. So my last point is mainly for the people on Oahu but

20:02
you know

20:02
messages for everywhere for us on Oahu tomorrow June 5 is when we’re they’re going to be allowing dine in for the local restaurants so

20:15
no I’m

20:16
I tell everyone to please support your local eateries you know, the small businesses are the ones having the hardest times. I mean, big businesses too, but you think about it from the restaurant standpoint. And yeah, it’s tough. So, you know, whether it be date night long awaited, or you know, catching up with lost friends over drinks, or the graduation celebration that was missed out on or the birthday, you know, try and go out to the restaurants and support your local restaurants and businesses for that matter, because um, it’s a it’s tough times right now.

20:52
All right. For those of you guys are interested in investing on the mainland, check out my podcast simple passive cash flow. iTunes, Google Play YouTube. We also put this on YouTube. But I also wanted to do a little bit of fun thing to break up the doom and gloom. So here’s a little fun map of everybody’s in watching TV. So based on every state, what is everybody watching? Apparently, here in Hawaii, we like to watch Parks and Rec. Maybe. People were very upset when Chris Pratt screwed up Avengers, endgame or Avengers was the first one where they lost. He kind of screwed it up for them. But yeah, a lot of friends in California Star Trek ease up in the northwest, but let’s get into some a few teaching points that kind of begin here and

21:44
alien Lena I want to hear what you’ve been watching.

21:47
Oh, I don’t watch TV man. I don’t got time for that. Okay,

21:52
I gotta let me add this in. I I kind of got hooked. I watched the first season of This Is Us. It’s On in BC. kinda interesting. It’s called a What is it called? A dramedy? more drama. It’s we did a bit of comedy. Are you familiar with that one?

22:10
No, no, I think I might have heard the name. But you know what now that you said I have been watching. I mean, I like MBA videos. Like the the last stance like I think I saw those videos the last like three years. They’ve been leaking them out on ESPN and YouTube. Yeah, but like, I’ve been watching this, like, there’s just like, really young Asian, like kids, and they just go through all this like Reddit stuff. And it’s like, definitely not kid friendly. But it’s like really funny. It’s like, it’s like a uncensored definition of go on TV. But they kind of go over the highlights over like what’s been going on on the going bar on the internet. Oh, interesting. Yeah. We don’t watch TV or I watch the YouTube YouTube. Kids are all on YouTube right these days. Yeah, we don’t even have cable technology. So this is kind of going back to what you were talking about earlier the supply and demand of, you know, your this is more on the national level. But in the blue here was the great financial crisis of 2008. overlaid on top of what’s happening today, with the I guess they’re calling this the great lockout, or you’re staying at home. So that what they’re trying to model here is the count of unique buyers. So that in turn have is how they quantify supply. So in 2008, the supply kind of dwindled down from about 80 102 down to 20. Over a period of quite a long time. Whereas, you know, right now, the great lockout that we’re in now went from like 100, down to 20 in a matter of like, a few months. So very different. And what they’re saying here is possibly the prices are going to kind of stay around in because the prices are dictated by supply and demand essentially. And if your demand is kind of the same, or if your demand drops, I’m having a brain fart here, but essentially people are, like looking at the count of buyers are dropping. So if the sellers are kind of equal, I guess it’s things are going to stay stagnant. You know, because I guess like the behavior here, and I’m sure you can comment on this is, you know, come March, April, if you’re going to list your house, you probably didn’t put it on the market, right? You didn’t go right into it because you want a fresh listing, right. You don’t want to be days on market 4560 days because then everybody’s gonna think that There’s a stigma something wrong with that property right?

25:03
Yeah split spoiled yeah this centers have been spoiled but I care I think we’re going good what

25:08
do you what are you doing with your listing now like if you had if you had a guy in in March or February March April wanted to list your house or you wanted to list the house, would you hold it back? So like now like, or what are you doing with your listings now you’re back

25:24
if they can wait we’re waiting and if they’re if they’re firing without a price adjustment and we’re priced what we think is is priced right then we’re we’re going to just keep you know, stay the course and see your work try to write it out because you know, like I said, you know, there are still people that want to buy and still they are really ready willing and able to buy so we are still seeing some some listing some showings right now. And as I like to tell my sellers just like you know, you kind of weed out the the tire kickers when With this COVID is what it’s doing because now, you know there’s not, you’re not going to probably call up your agent and and just say, Yeah, let’s go. Let’s go window shop. So the guys in theory that are coming to the private showings are are ready, willing and able to pull the trigger and in theory they need to be because on the border routers for us anyway, they said that you should be showing to me to be showing to qualified pre qualified buyers.

26:30
So it’s like the renter’s I mean, if people are shopping around for apartments around, I mean, they really need one they’re not they’re not walking around window shopping.

26:38
Right? So I see what they’re saying. The point is it like you said, supply and demand. So if demand is going down, and so is

26:47
supply, you’re you’re at a washer, you’re at an

26:50
equilibrium, so there’s going to be no change until the point in time that

26:54
one or the other gives you Yeah, the economy sucks and then nobody has money to buy and people are afraid forced to sell or employ your buyers go. Right.

27:03
Right. And then the inventory starts to pick up then yeah, right. If your supply starts to pick up, then that’s going to that’s going to drop the prices.

27:10
Yeah. So you’re talking a little about interest rates for those kind of new to the updates. The Fed dropped the rates back in March. But the interest rates don’t really follow the doesn’t necessarily follow the fed fund rates in the past that has a lot. But recently, it hasn’t. If I were getting a refinance, I would wait maybe three to six weeks at least. I think it’s gonna go even lower but it’s already so low. Yeah. If you need the money, get the money. I don’t under rentals, Dean if you try to do this, but I just you can. There’s a lot of forbearance options for landlords and property owners and even for people Go with their primary residences that I did a little video at simple passive cash flow calm slash forbearance, or I actually applied for one of these things just to test it out. Yeah. So it’s I did it for 90 days.

28:14
I haven’t done it personally ever. I’ve heard of a few people who have done done it. And is it true if you can’t refi until you catch up on that forbearance or you’re caught up

28:27
to? Yeah, probably, probably. And I’ve heard of some people like say, it lowers your credit score. But you know, I’ve done all kinds of stuff where I watch my credit score. I know that this doesn’t this impacts a lot. You just got to make sure you got your 90 days of payments, because you’re gonna pull it all out nine days from now. All right, if that’s part of the deal,

28:48
right, right. Right, right. Yeah, I’ve been hearing stories too. I’m careful. I knew he locks you know, in terms of potentially getting you’re having them. Call on your cell phone. Standing line. Yeah, like you have

29:03
you have like 100 200 grand, they’re gonna pull it right or Yeah.

29:06
Investor today and they just said they heard of it happening just to one, one instance of it happening. So it didn’t seem like it was happening right. So it also depends on what your loan to value is to rate. I mean, yeah,

29:21
yeah, it’s a local and

29:22
local bank or it was mainland, I believe, local investor, but he’s talking about mainland counterparts.

29:30
Yeah, that’s why a lot of people in my mastermind group that they were monetizing those things. They were deeply into cash. Once you pulled the cash, they’re like alright, you can go ahead and pull my e log but cash has gone already. It’s already my bank today. Yeah. So

29:43
I mean, that’s the scary thing. Those supposedly this this one borrower was was called upon it so actually asked to pay back some of that from that line. I don’t know how but that’s that’s what the word on the street was. That happened. So I thought that was kind of Scared but then again, it depends on loan to LTV, right. That’s probably

30:04
part of it. The loan covenants, you know, you have to always be at a certain coverage ratio.

30:11
And underwriting is definitely changing a lot too. It’s like pin the tail on the donkey or I mean moving target from the standpoint every day I believe it’s, you know, something news is changing.

30:22
So CBR is a big kind of broker in the space of commercial real estate. So a couple headlines here, obviously, this, a lot of unemployment out there. But one one key point here that I thought was interesting, approximately 78% of the total unemployed were reported as furloughed or temporary indicating many of these jobs could return once the economy fully covers and then a week labor Seabury came out with a pretty positive headline rebound expected in q3 after record drop in employment. And I I read a bunch of other stuff that saying You know, the second half of 2020 is going to be slow but we’re going to come right out of this 2021 not necessarily going to be a V or they call it the via the U shaped thing. I don’t know. But it’s, you know, things are kind of looking for the positive. It’s good. That’s good to hear. It’s only the people trying to sell people on gold that are kind of perma bears. Okay. And again, it’s all regional. Right? Because states like Hawaii who heavily rely on tourism, it’s it might be a different story compared to the national stat. Right, right. Right. Like for example, right here this graphic we’re showing the percent population under under statewide stay at home orders. It’s based on your state right, this is just the national I mean, people start in the United States started coming out of their caves, late April, early May. And then as of May 20, last week of May, for the most part 30% are have kind of released to stay at homes. But you know, Hawaii is done. Me lagging country,

32:02
although I heard Vegas is open for business.

32:04
Yeah, they’re open. I think today

32:07
if we if we had a tunnel that linked us to the west coast I bet you we have some some retirees driving over there right now through that underwater tunnel.

32:17
headline here, US housing markets vulnerable to Coronavirus impact cluster in the north east and Florida. And a lot of these areas listed are kind of in the New York more densely populated areas. And the point of the article is just like more densely populated areas are going to be more impacted than the rural areas.

32:40
Speaking of Florida, do you hear that a NBA might try to finish off the season.

32:45
Yeah, I’ve been I’ve been reading that news every day man 20 to 24 Matt Yeah.

32:51
In Disney World, right the or the Florida cup. When this said Florida that what?

32:57
We’re back man NBA back Come back.

33:00
So you know, you know the local courts are going to be real crop crowding up now. Yeah.

33:06
I’ve been playing we played last weekend. Everybody’s playing even your pickleball friends.

33:12
Oh, yeah, they just started this dress. Yeah. Well, I’ll have to hit you up later and maybe come play some bullet you guys

33:19
comments. So comment is a operator out there that does

33:25
residential housing and they’re kind of a big player but they’re making the move towards more workforce housing. And this is an example where I think a lot of mom and pop investors myself included, we had go after workforce housing, clientele, you know, the B and C class assets, not the high end luxury. And not the kind of the broke people you know, super dangerous is but kind of in the middle. You’re kind of watching what some of the big players are doing. This article is kind of showing some there’s a lot of articles in this this report but it took the the popularity of search terms for home for rent in the markets and they figured out what the Delta was the change in rank and here were some some possibly secondary and tertiary markets to look into if you guys are looking on the mainland that’s not saying none of these are really kind of popping out at myself but um, you know, those that’s what you have to do as an investor you have to look to more secondary and tertiary markets these days. It’s not 2012 anymore to look for yield.

34:34
Fairbanks Alaska sounds interesting.

34:37
Yeah, you know, valance probably something to do with some kind of like oil or you know, something like that.

34:44
Oh, some things. Some industries. That spot in that.

34:49
That city Yeah, like I mean, Billings, Montana, you look the population and going up there, you don’t want to invest there, right. And this is like as an investor, you have to take in all these inputs. After throwing bad data, and this might be bad data, but, you know, this whole show is about kind of just showing ideas and different sources.

35:09
And to your point to you know, the these cities could be banking on one big win like you said, you know, something like oil or, or the next Amazon regional warehouse is going to pop up there something like that. And, but if that was to fall through, then all bets are off. Right? Right.

35:27
Right. So speaking of all bets are off so these folks are going bankrupt. JC Penney, Neiman Marcus, Lord and Taylor, which is like a depart like a really old school department store and then Tuesday morning, and a lot of you guys don’t really care about those but maybe you care about Gold’s Gym files for chapter 11 also. So this is always happening. I think every other month we have a big company like this closing like forever 21 but With COVID it definitely accelerates the

36:04
lifecycle. And it actually just puts them in a better situation because again it’s this is a debt restructuring basically right for for 1111 is a debt restructuring. So you’re, you’re just cleaning up your balance sheet basically and you’re getting like debt forgiveness, right? They’re gonna in order for you to survive they’re asking Okay, we have too much debt can’t so how are we going to restructure it and and, you know, priority is going to rule it out and so there’s going to be some losers on the creditors side so it kind of sucks being them but these companies are gonna be alive still, you know? It’s just the creditors actually that that are gonna get screwed.

36:48
By right. God bless America. Right. Right. And you can strike out he hit it again, whereas different countries you’re you’re out. You don’t get it. You don’t get this a

36:57
chump is filed for bankruptcy. More than once.

37:01
Yeah, but I mean, everybody files for bankruptcy, right? That’s a strategy. Yeah. I mean, that’s why you have multiple LLC, you put your live but you take your lumps in one and you fold up that one but everybody else all the other LLC or are going good, right? I mean, it’s one of those YouTube headlines right? But then when you really look into it, it’s like, oh, that was smart as

37:23
part of the game system, right? He had to learn how to play with the big boys, right.

37:28
So this map shows America and the darker squares of the more impacted states, which are the percent of adults in households where someone had a loss of employment income since March 13. And it looks like boys, one of the darker ones in here, a lot of West Coast’s impacted here,

37:50
New York, New Jersey.

37:53
JOHN burns is a pretty good source of real estate investing information. So they had four big takeaways from this last round of surveys on new homebuilder builders should capture the pent up demand from apartment dwellers auspey looking to get some bigger space and know you know you helped us sell our con little condo that we were living in and thank God timing potentially the marriage have not lasted. If

38:24
that little place Good thing you got buy off from from the spouse in the in laws. That’s the main theory.

38:31
We’ve still be stuck in there. So john burns is saying you know, new homes or you know, there’s gonna be some captured pent up demand because people are like we were living in our little New York apartment but we can’t even like visit all these cool places because we’re stuck inside all day long. Apartment menteur. Apartment renters may move closer to jobs, or businesses are hiring some a double up and larger units while others will look for more efficient spaces at lower Absolute rents, those of us single family home rent, rental landlords, single family home rentals allowing financial flexibility and privacy with enhanced social distancing opportunities. And basically people want space right so people are looking to kind of spread out a little bit. To me the play is mobile home parks. People may want space but bra they can’t afford a single family home house or

39:29
something recession proof for

39:31
Yeah, and then commercial real estate is just you know, taking it on the chin right. always going to go to shops and and office spaces really struggling to here’s an article on development developments down normally there’s about 300,000 units coming on every year. But with the pandemic and slow orders. It’s going to be $250,000 or thousand units coming online, which means if you’re a developer and you You’re able to get your project pushed through, you’ve got less competition out there. So this is like anything, you know, you’re mentioning the small businesses out there struggling. I mean, this just is this is part of life, right? This is where you trim the fat and you show the strong balance sheet business operators out there.

40:17
And who know this, this is something to that might counter, you know, help us reduce the softening of the residential real estate market to write in terms of less inventory coming up

40:29
for sale, so that that might help us, you know, retain prices, potentially.

40:35
So this is something that I was probably, this is what I was a little stressed out these past few months like, Are my tenants paying my rent, the collections for me sort of came in and you got to really the like, you see a lot of these headlines and they’ll take it throughout the month but really to get it right you got to look at it next month on the past month. So when it all was said and done collections were about 93.3%, which was still pretty good. This is a 1.5 percentage point decrease from those going from April to May. So I know across our portfolio over 3000 units normally will collect about 97% of the rents, you know, three out of 100 guys will, you know, that just won’t pay and or, you know, have partial collections equating to 97%. May, yeah, April was maybe brought that down a couple percent points. And then, you know, May was a little little lower than that, but, you know, a lot of our deals are underwritten where as long as we keep that thing occupied and people paying it like 65 70% are making money. So, I think that this shows that resilience, that workforce housing and you know, why you don’t you know, invest in you know, areas where You know, there’s there’s really, really strong landlord laws against, or really strong tenant laws against landlords. The one takeaway I had, and this little graph of purple kind of outlines that is it’s the class C properties and worse that are really struggling the most with a collection, the worse and the driver is people in that lower lower earning range. They just don’t have the savings. And a lot of times they’re kind of the first to get cut. All your all your rentals are paying. You guys are renting.

42:35
Yeah, for me, I’m pleasantly surprised. Uh, April, they may have been pretty solid. Um, I haven’t found out for me June yet, but I’ll hopefully be here in the next few days of how June is going but yeah, April in May. We’re pretty good. I think I mentioned that last time was actually my one problem. tenant was actually locally on Oahu in that was an issue that was persistent from before COVID and as related to like some secondary issues so but overall I’m open to this point I’m pretty happy with how my collections have gone so far. So yeah, and this is for all the different states of Casey annoy

43:19
Nevada, so pretty, pretty solid.

43:22
Well, you got more p class stuff, right?

43:26
Yeah, BB plus Yeah, a little bit not I wouldn’t say all talking about the cedar that’s more the local stuff, but the main stuff is a little bit better. Yeah.

43:36
Yeah. To me that class C and Hawaii is still better than Class C in the mainland, just the clientele. Foleo 10. Yep. Agreed. So your national real estate investors also kind of says the same thing. I’ll look for classy apartments as muddied by tenants loss of income. And I just close 140 unit Class A apartment. And like Dallas, Texas. Couple of days ago, we got a HUD loan on that 35 and a half year amortization period, a total of 2.9% interest rate. So, wow. So if you’re available tomorrow, we’ll eat. You want to go yanagi tomorrow?

44:16
Yeah, sounds fun. Let me know. Yeah.

44:19
Okay, I gotta get oil change. Okay.

44:24
And those commercial

44:25
ones what kind of what kind of balloon are those?

44:29
10 year term? 10. year two. Okay. Yeah, that’s Yeah. I, you don’t really want to go anything with like, eight years or less than my own right? Because that’s what’s reaching you to the you don’t want to be forced to refinance or sell in a downtime. Hopefully in the next 10 years, we’ll be able to I mean, probably want to be able to sell that thing and five years from now, at a great price, but we got 10 years to sell at the right time. Or maybe refinance.

44:57
Yeah. And yeah, for the hood is getting it at that low rate.

45:00
Yeah, yeah, the HUD is like, you know, got a Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac stuff that non recourse debt. I mean, they’re great loans but the HUD mon, it’s just another level better. But this problem it takes like four to six months to originate. So we’ve been working on this one since like October November last year. I almost forgot about this. What’s on your plate man? And then, um, a little bit of good news Papa john reports. man’s best salesman in restaurant history for Papa John’s. But yeah, anybody’s got any questions? We have a few minutes to the top of the hour. You guys can type it in. But if not Dean Dean, you got any parting words for the folks?

45:45
I know. Anybody else is free. For you. Nakia for lunch, then yeah,

45:50
yeah, yeah, let us know. Um, he’s

45:53
got to be less than what 10 is it? 10 Yeah. Yeah. I think every every

46:00
Everyone’s setting their own guidelines too, just to let everyone know. So it’s good to contact your, the whatever restaurant you’re intending to do, because for us, we’re planning a father’s day, brunch over at one of the restaurants, restaurant. Suntory so great restaurant MSA. But they’re, they have their own guidelines and limits based on if you’re, if you’re all in one household or not. And that also determines the limitation. So be sure before you go for these gatherings if it’s like kind of a bigger one to reach out to that individual restaurant to see what their individual policy is because they might be a little bit stricter than what are our guidelines are? Or the law. Yeah.

46:46
Yeah. So there’s no questions. Other. Thank you. And thanks, everybody. And we’ll catch you guys next week.

46:57
So yeah, your Nagi at 11 Mo’s you guys Maybe you guys, let me know if you guys want to

47:05
see Yes. All right.

47:09
Three real estate investing,

47:11
check out our ei aloha.com

47:24
just two local guys with so much to say. So listen to the real estate brothers

47:29
today.

 

 

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